Tag Archives: Forecast

How Do You Plan Spending – to Backlog or Sales Forecast? Five Suggestions

Situation: A company had several huge orders last year but ended the year with a low backlog. Sales forecasts are rosy, but acceptance of proposals and initiation of work is hard to predict because the company’s products are just a piece of much larger projects with variable timelines. How do you plan spending in this environment – conservatively to backlog or more aggressively to the sales forecast?

Advice from the CEOs:

  • It is important to understand the magnitude of difference between spending under the two scenarios. For example, if a conservative spending plan means major cuts to product lines or business compared to the more aggressive plan, then analysis and what if scenarios are more complex,
  • What are the company’s cash-flow and debt situations. If you are cash-flow positive with little debt, this increases flexibility. Another consideration is the company’s attitude on debt.
    • Be wary of the healthiness of an unused credit line. Companies have seen unused credit lines cut and accounts cleared when they have started using the lines after a long dormant period.
    • Exercising the credit line may increase flexibility.
  • Look at your approach to forecasting and spending. How far out do you forecast? How effective have past outgoing forecasts for several quarters been, and what confidence can do you have for the next quarter, the quarter after, and the quarter after that?  If you are reasonably confident one quarter out, you can plan spending on this. If you can adjust spending relatively quickly this gives you more leeway.
  • Establish leading indicators to improve future forecasts.
    • What is your win/loss record on proposals, and a conservative estimate of what this ratio means for revenue?
    • Other examples include sales calls to new customers versus new key customers won, and similar sales metrics. These metrics can help to govern expectations based on sales forecasts.
  • If your sales team is not performing, look at changes to sales management. This may wake the team up and prompt them to go the extra mile for contacts and contracts.

Key Words: Forecast, Backlog, Spending, Planning, Cash-flow, Debt, Credit Line, Confidence, Indicators

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What Have You Done to Manage Rapid Growth? Five Foci

Situation: A company has experienced rapid growth. This is creating stress for the staff and CEO, who finds it difficult to break away from the day to day to focus on strategy. Employees are not keeping pace with the evolving needs of the company and turnover has increased. What have you done to manage rapid growth?

Advice from the CEOs:

  • The first task is to improve forecasting of business growth, and the infrastructure needed to support this growth. This includes:
    • Regularly updating your sales and production forecasts.
    • Updating staff and training plans to meet growth forecasts.
    • Updating infrastructure and support plans.
    • Without these, the organization will whipsaw in response to market demands.
  • Take a critical look at your staff development plans and staff training.
    • Look at those areas that are most impacted by business growth. Determine whether you have the right managers and support in place.
    • Evaluate whether you have the right people and whether they have the skills to handle new demands of their positions.
  • Critically evaluate each now job that you take on. Assure that you have the staff and infrastructure to meet client demands.
    • Always assure that you deliver on your company’s integrity, reputation and core values.
  • In addition to addressing immediate needs, look at long-term plans strategically. Ask where you will be in 10 years. Articulate this vision in detail, and drive plans down through the organization. Make sure that everyone is on the same page, aligned with the same values, aiming at the same targets.
  • Also differentiate your vision from your mission:
    • You vision is a 10 year time frame, not one year.
    • Your mission is what you will be doing this year and in 5 years – the activities you will undertake to realize your longer term vision.
    • Fine tune your vision and mission and drive these through the organization. This will give you clarity on how you wish to do business and will help you to make hard choices as you handle rapid growth.

Key Words: Growth, Rapid, Stress, Focus, Turnover, Forecast, Infrastructure, Training, Support, Values, Staff, Development, Skill, Plan, Align, Vision, Mission

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