Situation: A CEO is planning for 2015-16. While the economy seems to be picking up, there are clouds on the horizon. Do you believe the positive indicators? How do business prospects look for 2015-16?

Advice from the CEOs:

• Company A: Based on our pipeline we should be recruiting heavily. However we are being conservative and are only adding personnel selectively.
• Company B: We expect 2015 to be modestly better than the last few years. Engineering saw a turnaround this summer; however we need to see signs that this early economic cycle work spreads more broadly to the rest of the economy.
• Company C: Some of our development work looks like a spike due to delayed projects. This may not be sustainable.
• Company D: Weakness in Europe and the recent announcement that Japan has entered another recession give us caution about international prospects.
• Increasing numbers of Baby-Boomers are retiring. However, some statistics suggest that 60% of retired boomers will be living on Social Security, meaning that they will struggle to make ends meet. This could create a negative shift in consumer spending.
• The current stock market rally is based on the higher profitability of large public companies. This has come about as a result of two factors: recessionary cutbacks and easy money from the Federal Reserve. What we may be seeing is a Fed–funded bubble. There is a question of its sustainability.
• Implications for business:
  • For companies doing business internationally – the lower dollar helps.
  • Cautious additions to employment/investment.
  • Need to deal with inflation if the recovery accelerates.
  • If and when the recovery accelerates, employee retention may become a challenge.

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